Disclaimer: Some not too structured thoughts. It’s commonly said that correlation does not imply causation. That is true (see Gwern’s analysis), but does causation imply correlation? Specifically, if “→” means causes and “~~” means correlates with, does X→Y imply X~~Y? It may seem obvious that the answer is yes, but it is not so clear. […]

Title says it all. Apparently, some think this is not the case, but it is a straightforward application of Bayes’ theorem. When I first learned of Bayes’ theorem years ago, I thought of this point. Back then I also believed that stereotypes are irrelevant when one has individualized information. Alas, it is incorrect. Neven Sesardic […]

I had the impression that, since recognition of [problem] dates back at least to [person from a long time ago], there was a voluminous literature and [statistics to deal with the problem] was a solved problem, so I’m a little troubled that you seem to be trying to invent your own methods and aren’t citing […]

Earlier posts: Something about certainty, proofs in math, induction/abduction, Is the summed cubes equal to the squared sum of counting integer series? The things I’m going to say for math are equally true for logic, so whenever I write “math”, just mentally substitute to “math and logic”. Here I’m going to be talking about something […]

In the review of a paper submitted to ODP some time ago, the issue of a general extremism factor in religion came up. Unfortunately, Dutton deleted the submission thread, so the discussion is forever lost to history (possibly could be recovered from backups of the forum, but not worth the trouble; Yes I looked at […]

I’ve always considered myself a very rational and fairly unbiased person. Being aware of the general tendency for people to overestimate themselves (see also visualization of the Dunning-Kruger effect), this of course reduces my confidence in my own estimates of these. So what better to do than take some actual tests? I have previously taken […]

www.goodreads.com/book/show/11324722-the-righteous-mind gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=1b4cf46bf0d2911c6151ba706aac2ca3 I had heard good things about this book, sort of. It has been cited a lot. Enough that I would be wiling to read it, given that the author has written at least one interesting paper (Political Diversity Will Improve Social Psychological Science). Generally, it is written in popsci style, very few statistics […]

Goodreads. Ebook. To those who don’t know Bostrom, he’s a prof of filosofy at Oxford. His book concerns superintelligence which is defined “any intellect that greatly exceeds the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest“, even right-tail performance. The book is basically a series of comments about how to best go on […]

www.goodreads.com/book/show/134567.Reassembling_the_Social gen.lib.rus.ec/search.php?req=Reassembling+the+Social&open=0&view=simple&column=def This is quite possibly the worst non-amateur book I’ve ever read. My notes to this book are so many that in the latter parts of the book, I got tired of noting the errors and oddities, just wishing to get it over with. To those unfamiliar with this kind of thing, go read […]

BMI (body mass index) is often used a proxy for fat percent or similar measures. This is for a good reason: So, the mean correlation across age groups and gender is very high, around .77 (unweighted mean across genders). There is a clear age gradient such that the correlation being higher at younger ages, which […]