{"id":3948,"date":"2013-09-08T15:50:24","date_gmt":"2013-09-08T14:50:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/?p=3948"},"modified":"2014-10-09T18:52:00","modified_gmt":"2014-10-09T17:52:00","slug":"review-merchants-of-doubt-naomi-oreskes-erik-m-conway","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/2013\/09\/review-merchants-of-doubt-naomi-oreskes-erik-m-conway\/","title":{"rendered":"Review: Merchants of Doubt (Naomi Oreskes, Erik M. Conway)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p lang=\"da-DK\">I hadnt planned on reading this book, just saw a random comment about it on a discussion board. I figured i might as well read it since i found a free pdf: <a href=\"http:\/\/bookos.org\/book\/1249598\/3e9299\">http:\/\/bookos.org\/book\/1249598\/3e9299<\/a><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">The book turned out to be moderately interesting. It is mostly about the history of denying pollution problems, usually by marked-friendly people. It underlines the problem of lobbying and the need for transparency.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Call it the \u201cTobacco Strategy.\u201d Its target was science, and so it relied <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">heavily on scientists\u2014with guidance from industry lawyers and public re\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">lations experts\u2014willing to hold the rifle and pull the trigger. Among the <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">multitude of documents we found in writing this book were Bad Science: A <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Resource Book\u2014a how-to handbook for fact fighters, providing example af\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ter example of successful strategies for undermining science, and a list of <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">experts with scientific credentials available to comment on any issue about <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">which a think tank or corporation needed a negative sound bite.14<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">Sounds too good to be true, so i checked, and its true:<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><a href=\"http:\/\/legacy.library.ucsf.edu\/tid\/snc52c00\">http:\/\/legacy.library.ucsf.edu\/tid\/snc52c00<\/a><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">These findings shouldn&#8217;t have been a surprise. German scientists had <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">shown in the 1930s that cigarette smoking caused lung cancer, and the Nazi <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">government had run major antismoking campaigns; Adolf Hitler forbade <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">smoking in his presence. However, the German scientific work was tainted by <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">its Nazi associations, and to some extent ignored, i f not actually suppressed, <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">after the war; it had taken some time to be rediscovered and independently <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">confirmed.21 Now, however, American researchers\u2014not Nazis\u2014were calling <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">the matter &#8220;urgent,\u201d and the news media were reporting it.22 &#8220;Cancer by the <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">carton\u201d was not a slogan the tobacco industry would embrace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">Typical case of guilt by association. Im still waiting for eugenics to be free from that association, just like anti-smoking is today, and vegetarianism, etc.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">C. C. Little was a renowned geneticist, a member of the U.S. National <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Academy of Sciences and former president of the University of Michigan.34 <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">But he was also well outside the mainstream of scientific thinking. In the <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">1930s, Little had been a strong supporter of eugenics\u2014the idea that soci\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ety should actively improve its gene pool by encouraging breeding by the <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">\u201cfit\u201d and discouraging or preventing breeding by the \u201cunfit.\u201d His views <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">were not particularly unusual in the 1920s\u2014they were shared by many <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">scientists and politicians including President Theodore Roosevelt\u2014but <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">nearly everyone abandoned eugenics in the \u201940s when the Nazis made <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">manifest where that sort of thinking could lead. Little, however, remained <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">convinced that essentially all human traits were genetically based, includ\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ing vulnerability to cancer. For him, the cause of cancer was genetic weak\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ness, not smoking.<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">Well, there is no &#8216;the&#8217; cause of cancer, unless one thinks of things like the breakdown of <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Apoptosis\">apoptosis<\/a>, i.e. programmed cell death (cells kill themselves when they detect genetic anomalies in themselves, a process which necessarily has to be disabled for cancer to spread, otherwise it just kills itself).<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">The treatment of eugenics above is also unfair. See e.g.: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goodreads.com\/book\/show\/2258889.Future_Human_Evolution?ac=1\">https:\/\/www.goodreads.com\/book\/show\/2258889.Future_Human_Evolution?ac=1<\/a><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><a href=\"http:\/\/whatwemaybe.org\/\">http:\/\/whatwemaybe.org\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">And surely genetics has a lot to do with cancer. I havent looked into the issue before, but i did a quick check for a twin study on the heritability of lung cancer. I found this:<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">Lichtenstein, Paul, et al. &#8220;Environmental and heritable factors in the causation of cancer\u2014analyses of<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">cohorts of twins from Sweden, Denmark, and Finland.&#8221; <em>New England Journal of Medicine<\/em> 343.2 (2000): 78-85.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">SCREENSHOT<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Bolin and his Swedish colleagues had made \u201cmass balance arguments\u201d : <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">they considered how much sulfur could be supplied by the three largest <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">known sources\u2014pollution, volcanoes, and sea spray\u2014and compared this <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">with how much sulfur was falling as acid rain. Since there are no active vol\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">canoes in northern Europe, and sea spray doesn\u2019t travel very far, they de\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">duced that most of the acid rain in northern Europe had to come from air <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">pollution. Still, this was an indirect argument. To really prove the point, <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">you\u2019d want to show that the actual sulfur in actual acid rain came from a <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">known pollution source. Fortunately there was a way to do this\u2014using <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">isotopes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Scientists love isotopes\u2014atoms of the same element with different <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">atomic weights, like carbon-12 and carbon-14\u2014because they are excep\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">tionally useful. I f they are radioactive and decay over time\u2014like carbon- <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">14\u2014they can be used to determine the age of objects, like fossils and <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">archeological relics. I f they are stable, like carbon-13\u2014or sulfur-34\u2014they<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">can be used to figure out where the carbon or sulfur has come from.19 Dif\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ferent sources of sulfur have different amounts of sulfur-34, so you can <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">use the sulfur isotope content as a \u201cfingerprint&#8221; or \u201csignature\u201d of a partic\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ular source, either natural or man-made. In 1978, Canadian scientists <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">showed that the isotopic signature of sulfur in acid rain in Sudbury was <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">identical to the sulfur in the nickel minerals being mined there. In later <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">years, some skeptics would argue that the acid in acid rain came from vol\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">canoes (they would say the same about fluorine and ozone depletion, and <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">about C0 2 and global warming), but the isotope analysis showed that couldn&#8217;t <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">be true.20 In any case there are no active volcanoes in Ontario.<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">pretty cool.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>Political Action and the U.S.-Canadian Rift<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">In 1979, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe passed the <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Convention on Long-range Transboundary Pollution. Based on the Decla\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ration of the U.N. Conference on the Human Environment\u2014the one for <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">which Bert Bolin&#8217;s report had been prepared\u2014the convention insisted that <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">all nations have responsibility to \u201censure that activities within their juris\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">diction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other states <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction.\u201d24 Henceforth, it would <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">be illegal to dump your pollution on someone else, whether you did it with <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">trucks or with smokestacks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">Classic case of negative externalities. <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Externality#Negative\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Externality#Negative<\/a><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Like most of his colleagues, Singer believed there was a need for more <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">science, but in 1970 he argued that one cannot always wait to act until mat\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ters are proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. Singer cited the famous essay <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">&#8220;The Tragedy of the Commons,\u201d in which biologist Garrett Hardin argued <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">that individuals acting in their rational self-interest may undermine the <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">common good, and warned against assuming that technology would save <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">us from ourselves. &#8221; If we ignore the present warning signs and wait for an <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ecological disaster to strike, it will probably be too late,\u201d Singer noted. He <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">imagined what it must have been like to be Noah, surrounded by &#8220;compla\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">cent compatriots,\u201d saying,&#8221; &#8216;Don\u2019t worry about the rising waters, Noah; our <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">advanced technology will surely discover a substitute for breathing\/ If it <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">was wisdom that enabled Noah to believe in the &#8216;never-yet-happened, \u2019 we <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">could use some of that wisdom now,\u201d Singer concluded.63<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">But prevention is usually cheaper than clearing up afterwards. So it is better to prevent if one can.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Singer also presumed that the costs were mostly accrued in the present, <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">but the benefits in the future, and therefore the latter had to be discounted <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">in order to make them commensurate with the former. (That is to say, a <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">dollar in the future is not worth as much to you as a dollar now, so you <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">\u201cdiscount&#8221; its value in your planning and decision making. How much <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">you discount it depends in part on inflation, but also in part on how much <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">you value the future.) Discounting would later become a huge issue in as\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">sessing the costs and benefits of stopping global warming, as long-term <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">risks can be quickly written off with a sufficiently high discount rate.111<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">Im pretty sure there is a name for this kind of bias, but i cant recall its name or find it on Wikipedia&#8217;s list. <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_cognitive_biases\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_cognitive_biases<\/a><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">In later years, emissions trading would be used to reduce acid pollution\u2014 <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">and today many people are looking to such a system to control the green\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">house gases that cause global warming. Yet economists (and ordinary <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">people) know that markets do not always work.114 Indeed, many economists <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">would say that pollution is a prime example of market failure: its collateral <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">damage is a hidden cost not reflected in the price of a given good or service. <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Milton Friedman\u2014the modem guru of free market capitalism\u2014had a name <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">for such costs (albeit an innocuous one): he called them \u201cneighborhood <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">effects.\u201d115<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">Or \u201dnegative externalities\u201d.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">David Hounshell is one of America\u2019s leading historians of technology. <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Recently he and his colleagues at Carnegie Mellon University have turned <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">their attention to the question of regulation and technological innovation. <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">In an article published in 2005, &#8220;Regulation as the Mother of Innovation,\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">based on the Ph.D. research of Hounshell\u2019s student, Margaret Taylor, they <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">examined the question of what drives innovation in environmental control <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">technology. It is well established that the lack of immediate financial bene\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">fits leads companies to underinvest in R &amp; D, and this general problem is <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">particularly severe when it comes to pollution control. Because pollution <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">prevention is a public good\u2014not well reflected in the market price of <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">goods and services\u2014the incentives for private investment are weak. Com\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">petitive forces just don\u2019t provide enough justification for the long-term in\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">vestment required; there is a lack of driving demand. However, when <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">government establishes a regulation, it creates demand. I f companies know <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">they have to meet a firm regulation with a definite deadline, they respond\u2014 <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">and innovate. The net result may even be cost savings for the companies, as <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">obsolete technologies are replaced with state-of-the art ones, yet the com\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">panies would not have bothered to make the change had they not been <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">forced to.<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">That is unexpected under a rational choice theory of companies. Are companies also irrational?<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Satellites don&#8217;t just \u201ccollect&#8221; data in the way that nineteenth-century ge\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ologists collected rocks or biologists collected butterflies; they detect sig\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">nals and process them. The electronics and computer software involved <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">are very complex and sometimes things go awry, so procedures are in\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">cluded for screening and rejecting \u201cbad\u201d data. This was the case here. The <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">satellite processing software contained computer code designed to flag <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ozone concentrations below a certain level\u2014180 Dobson units\u2014as unre- <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">alistically low, and therefore probably bad data.44 Concentrations that low <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">had never been detected in the stratosphere and could not be generated by <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">any existing theoretical model, so it seemed like a reasonable choice. <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">When some of the Antarctic ozone retrievals had come in well below 180, <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">they were catalogued as errors. The instrument&#8217;s science team had a map<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">that showed the errors concentrated over the Antarctic in October, but they <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">had ignored it, assuming the instrument was faulty. A healthy skepticism <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">about their machinery led them to dismiss crucial data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">When Stolarski double-checked, he found that the depleted region <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">covered all of Antarctica\u2014and the &#8220;ozone hole\u201d was bom. It wasrft an instru\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ment error. It was a real phenomenon. It had been detected by the satellites. <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">And it defied expectation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">That is why one does not program such things into the primary data collectors. In general, discarding data is bad bad bad, and any such process shud be explicit.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Officially the mission of the Alexis de Tocqueville Institution is to pro\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">mote democracy; in 1993 the Institution decided to promote democracy <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">by defending secondhand smoke. \u201cEPA and the Science of Environ\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">mental Tobacco Smoke\u201d was written by Fred Singer and Kent Jeffreys.75 The <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Tocqueville Institution had anointed Jeffreys with the title of \u201cadjunct scholar,\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">but he was in fact a lawyer affiliated with the Cato Institute, the Competi\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">tive Enterprise Institute, and the Republican Party. He was well-known for <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">his attacks on Superfund\u2014the federal fund designed to pay for the cleanup <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">of toxic waste sites\u2014and for his advocacy of \u201cfree-market environmental\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ism.\u201d One of his slogans was \u201cbehind every tree should stand a private . . . <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">owner.\u201d To prevent overfishing, Jeffreys wanted to privatize the oceans.76<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">The defense of secondhand smoke was part of a larger report criticizing <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">the EPA over radon, pesticides, and the Superfund, but the center of it\u2014 <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">and the focus of the accompanying press releases\u2014was what Singer and <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Jeffreys called \u201cCase Study No. 1: Environmental Tobacco Smoke.\u201d It be\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">gan by accusing the federal government of seeking a ban on smoking\u2014 <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">although there was no pending legislation to do so\u2014and asserting that the <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">vehicle of the alleged ban would be the EPA. But the EPA had not asked <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">for a ban, so how did Singer and Jeffreys build their case? By asserting that <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">\u201cscientific standards were seriously violated in order to produce a report to <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ban smoking in public settings.\u201d77 What was the alleged violation? The <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">EPA panel had assumed a linear dose-response curve. They had assumed <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">the risk was directly proportional to the exposure.<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Singer and Jeffreys argued that the EPA should have assumed a \u201cthresh\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">old effect&#8221;\u2014that doses below a certain level would have no effect. Citing the <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">old adage \u201cthe dose makes the poison,\u201d they insisted that there might be a <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">threshold value below which no harm occurred. Since the EPA had failed to <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">provide proof that this wasn\u2019t so, the linear-dose response assumption was <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">\u201cflawed.\u201d78<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">A threshold model is indeed possible, and one cannot just assume a linear non-threshold model. Not for smoke and not for radiation either. One needs data points that establishes the LNT model before one can use it for predicting things.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">The real culprit in smoking, Seitz argued, was smoke, and this was &#8220;no <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">more wanted by smokers than coffee grounds by cappuccino addicts or a <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">hangover by drinkers of red wine.\u201d So Seitz suggested that the U.S. gov\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ernment should figure out how to remove the smoke from cigarettes. <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">&#8220;Only one-tenth of one percent of a cigarette is nicotine, and it should not <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">take a rocket scientist to devise a means to volatilizing that small drop of <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">active ingredient without generating a thousand times its weight in burn\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ing leaves.\u201d122 Seitz was proposing that the government should spend tax\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">payer money figuring out how to safely deliver nicotine\u2014an addictive and <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">toxic substance\u2014to the American people.<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">This sort of exigent approach might make sense for methadone since it <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">helps people get off heroin, whose dangers to individuals and society are <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">both grave and immediate. But what public good would be served by the <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">government deliberately enabling people to continue to smoke?<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">The authors apparently do not understand harm reduction. The goal is not to stop people from smoking. The goal is to reduce harmful effects. If one can invest less dangerous alternatives, this is a great idea. Some people will never give up their nicotine dependence, and the only way to reduce harm for them without overly draconic regulation (banning smoking, and with a huge surveillance society to back it up), is to have less harmful alternatives.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">See also: <a href=\"https:\/\/christianengstrom.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/07\/snus-helps-reduce-smoking-related-deaths-in-sweden\/\">https:\/\/christianengstrom.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/07\/snus-helps-reduce-smoking-related-deaths-in-sweden\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.clivebates.com\/?p=434\">http:\/\/www.clivebates.com\/?p=434<\/a><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">The Global Climate Coalition meanwhile had circulated a report enti\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">tled \u201cThe IPCC: Institutionalized Scientific Cleansing\u201d to reporters, mem\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">bers of Congress, and some scientists. By chance, anthropologist Myanna <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Lahsen interviewed Nierenberg about his \u201cskepticism\u201d about global warm\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ing two weeks before the Working Group I Report was published, and <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">found that he had a copy of the coalition report. He had evidently accepted <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">its veracity, even though there was no way to compare its claims against <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">the real chapter 8 (since the latter had not yet been released). He quoted its <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">claims to Lahsen, telling her that the revisions had \u201cjust altered the whole <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">meaning of the document. Without permission of the authors.\u201d Moreover, <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">he claimed, \u201cAnything that would imply the current status of knowledge is <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">so poor that you can&#8217;t do anything is struck out.\u201d 144 That was hardly true; <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Santer7 s panel had included six pages of discussion of uncertainty in the fi\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">nal text. But Bill Nierenberg knew all about altering scientific reports for <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">political reasons, so perhaps he followed the adage that the best defense is<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">offense. Or perhaps he was guilty of \u201cmirror imaging,\u201d as Team B had <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">accused the CIA of in 1976: assuming that his opponents thought and op\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">erated the way he did.<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">The term for this is projection bias. <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Projection_bias\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Projection_bias<\/a><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">Ignore the Freudian crap.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Fred Singer gave his game away when he denied the reality of the ozone <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">hole, suggesting that people involved in the issue &#8220;probably [have]. . . <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">hidden agendas of their own\u2014not just to &#8216;save the environment&#8221; but to <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">change our economic system . . . Some of these &#8216;coercive Utopians\u2019 are so\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">cialists, some are technology-hating Luddites; most have a great desire to <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">regulate\u2014on as large a scale as possible.\u201d33 He revealed a similar anxiety <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">in his defense of secondhand smoke: &#8221; I f we do not carefully delineate the <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">government*s role in regulating [danger]. . . there is essentially no limit to <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">how much government can ultimately control our lives.\u201d34 Today tobacco, <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">tomorrow the Bill of Rights. Milton Friedman said much the same in Cap\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">italism and Freedom: that economic freedom is as important as civic free\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">dom, because i f you lose one, it is only a matter of time before you lose the <\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">other.35 And so one must defend free markets with the same vigor and vig\u00ad<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\"><span style=\"color: #800000;\">ilance as free speech, free religion, and free assembly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">\n<p lang=\"da-DK\">He wasnt completely wrong about this. There is a crazy amount of overregulation in some areas, altho probably not in the areas he was complaining about here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I hadnt planned on reading this book, just saw a random comment about it on a discussion board. I figured i might as well read it since i found a free pdf: http:\/\/bookos.org\/book\/1249598\/3e9299 The book turned out to be moderately interesting. It is mostly about the history of denying pollution problems, usually by marked-friendly people. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1946],"tags":[2021,1920,1947,1067],"class_list":["post-3948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-political-science","tag-climate-science","tag-energy-science","tag-history","tag-review","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3948"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3948\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3949,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3948\/revisions\/3949"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}