There was a vote:<\/p>\n
Last week, in a move overshadowed by the international outcry<\/a> over Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Plebiscito.eu<\/a>, an organization representing\u00a0a coalition of Venetian nationalist groups, held an unofficial referendum on breaking with Rome. Voters were first asked\u00a0the main question<\/a>\u2014”Do you want Veneto to become an independent and sovereign federal republic?”\u2014followed by three sub-questions on membership in the European Union, NATO, and the eurozone. The region’s 3.7 million eligible voters used a unique digital ID number to cast ballots online, and organizers estimate that more than 2 million voters ultimately participated in the poll.<\/p>\n On Friday night, people waving red-and-gold flags emblazoned with the Lion of St. Mark filled the square of Treviso, a city in the Veneto region, as the referendum’s organizers\u00a0announced the results<\/a>: 2,102,969 votes in favor of independence\u2014a whopping 89 percent of all ballots cast\u2014to 257,266 votes against.\u00a0Venetians also said\u00a0yes to joining NATO, the EU, and the eurozone<\/a>. The overwhelming victory surprised even ardent supporters of the initiative, as most polls before the referendum estimated only about\u00a065 percent of the region’s voters supported independence<\/a>.<\/p>\n Someone in the comments makes the following argument:<\/p>\n I don’t understand why it’s so surprising that 89% of respondents in an online, unofficial poll organized by Venetian nationalist groups voted that way. As a proportion of all eligible voters, that comes out to 55-60%, much closer to what you’d expect from neutral sampling. My response:<\/p>\n You are assuming that the entire set of nonvoting citizens would be against it. While there is likely some self-selection, it is NOT likely to be 100%.<\/p>\n I did the math for every 10% incremental. If everybody voted either “yes” or “no”, then the total outcome range is [56.84%-93.05%], a clear majority in any case.<\/p>\n Even given a very strong self-selection effect such that nonvoters are 70% against, the outcome is 67.7% “yes”.<\/p>\n I did the math, and it is here: https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0AoYWmgpqFzdsdDZUSWhOOEctRnFhakVLUjFsbFpWUHc#gid=0<\/p>\n Here’s the takeaway. Venice wants to be independent and it is not a narrow decision, even assuming implausible self-selection.<\/p>\n
\nSelf-selection bias is a huge problem with online polling, and I expect that given the methodology of the referendum, that would explain a large part of the discrepancy between the predicted and observed outcomes.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/venice.png\" "\\"venice\\"")
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