{"id":6397,"date":"2017-02-02T05:45:34","date_gmt":"2017-02-02T04:45:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/?p=6397"},"modified":"2017-02-08T14:29:41","modified_gmt":"2017-02-08T13:29:41","slug":"some-simple-models-of-us-county-voting-outcomes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/2017\/02\/some-simple-models-of-us-county-voting-outcomes\/","title":{"rendered":"Some simple models of US county voting outcomes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Woodley convinced me that these are of actual interest. As some of you may recall, I compiled a large county level (n\u22483000) dataset<\/a> some time ago, but didn’t use it for anything. I just thought it would be a cool dataset, but that results were not too interesting. Well, since someone did think these were important analyses enough to do a study using state level data on, I took a look at the superior dataset. The outcome variables are the fractions of votes for Democrats, Republicans as well as Libertarians and Greens for the 2016 election. Results for Dems and Reps are also available for 2012 and 2008. The 2016 data also has the various smaller candidates (e.g. this guy<\/a>) but these were of little interest so I did not examine them.<\/p>\n

Data sources<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The cognitive ability (CA) score is from what used to be called the Global Report Card<\/em> but which changed name to (mumble mumble), but one can find them here<\/a>. I think these are actually from NAEP testing, but I’m not quite sure. They are some kind of scholastic testing, so not exactly standard IQ data, but good enough<\/a>. The S — general socioeconomic factor (a fancy general social status metric) — is extracted from some varied 28 indicators, as detailed in this study<\/a>. The voter outcome data comes from NYT’s map here<\/a>. It took a bit of a scrape job to get them out, but I managed. The data are actually not the final counts, as I thought they were when I downloaded them, but they are very close to the finals, and so I didn’t bother updating them. I guess I should now that someone wants to publish this in some journal with my name on it! Demographic data was from the ACS<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Regressions<\/strong><\/h3>\n

While one should use path models, I know that some will want to see the straight regressions. Regressions are basically path models where all the predictors are modeled as being causally independent and which cause the dependent outcome. Thus, one assumes that S is not caused by CA or by demographics. What this basically does is underestimate the variables which mainly work thru other variables (indirect effects).<\/p>\n

What am I reporting? I report the standardized betas for the predictors, some model meta-data including cross-validated R2<\/sup> (10 fold<\/a>), and the etas. What are etas? These are the square root of the more common eta2<\/sup><\/a>., It’s an R2<\/sup>-type measure, i.e. about variance, so it is non-linear and not so easy to interpret correctly. Taking the square root puts it on the same scale as the correlation. The etas here are derived from the analysis of variance fit by stats::aov,<\/em> which is passed to lsr::etaSquared<\/em> function. This uses type 2 errors by default and I too like to live dangerously so I didn’t check method variance by trying the other methods. If you wonder what these are, you can find them explained here<\/a>, here<\/a> and here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"live<\/a><\/p>\n

Etas have an advantage in comparison to the standardized betas which is that they make it possible to compare the importance of variables for the model’s overall explanatory power. Standardized betas do not allow for this because while they are standardized, a variable may be highly correlated with other variables such that it is redundant. Categorical variables may not have much variation. Being a type B may be associated with a large negative effect for some outcome, but if the dataset consists of 99% type A’s and 1% type B’s, variation in type will not explain much variation in the outcome. Etas take this into account.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, categorical variables, such as state, are given a beta for n-1 of their levels (the last level is the reference level and thus has beta=0 using standard contrast coding<\/a>). So if we have two categorical predictors, one with 5 levels and one with 10, we get a set of 4 betas vs. a set of 9 betas. This makes it hard to assess the relative importance of a categorical predictor compared to … any other predictor. Etas deal away with this problem because each categorical predictor is only assigned 1 eta value, just as every other variable is.<\/p>\n

A problem with etas is that they are directionless (because based on eta2<\/sup>). However, we can look up the direction for the non-categorical variables using the betas. The categorical predictors of course do not have any consistent directions.<\/p>\n

Choosing metrics for relative comparison of predictors is actually<\/a> very<\/a> difficult<\/a> and I only used a simple method here because this is the only method I have implemented in my model summary function so far. I should<\/em> implement the functions from the relaimpo<\/strong> package<\/a>, but alas, I don’t have infinite time. So for now we will pretend that etas are totally fine for this purpose.<\/p>\n

Here’s the results (6 long tables of numbers):<\/p>\n

Democrats, 2016<\/strong>
\nModel coefficients
\nEstimate Std. Error CI.lower CI.upper
\nCA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.0934\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.017\u00a0\u00a0 -0.127\u00a0\u00a0 -0.060
\nS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.1281\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.019\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.092\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.164
\nBlack\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.7662\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.017\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.733\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.800
\nAsian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.2719\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.012\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.248\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.296
\nHispanic\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.3831\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.015\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.354\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.412
\nState: Alabama\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.0000\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA
\nState: Arizona\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.1032\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.165\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.779\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.427
\nState: Arkansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.4404\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.091\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.263\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.618
\nState: California\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.7013\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.107\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.491\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.912
\nState: Colorado\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.0043\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.101\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.807\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.202
\nState: Connecticut\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.6893\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.202\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.293\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.085
\nState: Delaware\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.0288\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.314\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.413\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.645
\nState: Florida\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.5031\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.095\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.318\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.689
\nState: Georgia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.0547\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.078\u00a0\u00a0 -0.208\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099
\nState: Idaho\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.3316\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.108\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.121\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.543
\nState: Illinois\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.9745\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.088\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.802\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.147
\nState: Indiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.9326\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.090\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.756\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.109
\nState: Iowa\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.2884\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.090\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.113\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.464
\nState: Kansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.3538\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.089\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.180\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.528
\nState: Kentucky\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.7534\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.086\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.584\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.923
\nState: Louisiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.1778\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.093\u00a0\u00a0 -0.361\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.005
\nState: Maine\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.1385\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.150\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.843\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.434
\nState: Maryland\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.8010\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.130\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.547\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.055
\nState: Massachusetts\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.5254\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.161\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.211\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.840
\nState: Michigan\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.3539\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.091\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.175\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.532
\nState: Minnesota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.3040\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.092\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.123\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.485
\nState: Mississippi\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.0042\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.089\u00a0\u00a0 -0.178\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.170
\nState: Missouri\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.6297\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.086\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.462\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.798
\nState: Montana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.0762\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.102\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.876\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.277
\nState: Nebraska\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.3433\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.092\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.162\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.524
\nState: Nevada\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.2345\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.147\u00a0\u00a0 -0.054\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.523
\nState: New Hampshire\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.1916\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.183\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.833\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.550
\nState: New Jersey\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.8934\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.145\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.609\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.178
\nState: New Mexico\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.5739\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.125\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.328\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.820
\nState: New York\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.3975\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.098\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.205\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.590
\nState: North Carolina\u00a0\u00a0 0.7083\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.086\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.540\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.877
\nState: North Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.8483\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.104\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.644\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.053
\nState: Ohio\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.1032\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.092\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.924\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.283
\nState: Oklahoma\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.2687\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.092\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.088\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.449
\nState: Oregon\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.2490\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.115\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.024\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.474
\nState: Pennsylvania\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.1244\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.096\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.936\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.313
\nState: Rhode Island\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.2675\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.248\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.780\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.755
\nState: South Carolina\u00a0\u00a0 0.2430\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.102\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.043\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.443
\nState: South Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.0742\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.098\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.881\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.267
\nState: Tennessee\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.4817\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.087\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.310\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.653
\nState: Texas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.2096\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.085\u00a0\u00a0 -0.376\u00a0\u00a0 -0.044
\nState: Utah\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.2185\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.123\u00a0\u00a0 -0.022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.459
\nState: Vermont\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.9258\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.159\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.613\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.238
\nState: Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.7378\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.083\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.576\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.900
\nState: Washington\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.3852\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.111\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.167\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.604
\nState: West Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.6874\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.100\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.491\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.884
\nState: Wisconsin\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.7170\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.095\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.530\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.904
\nState: Wyoming\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.2856\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.132\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.026\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.545<\/code><\/p>\n

Model meta-data\r\n outcome\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00a0\u00a0 R2 R2-adj. R2-cv\r\n 1 dem16_frac 3062 0.72\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.72\u00a0 0.71\r\n\r\nEtas from analysis of variance\r\n eta eta.part\r\n CA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.052\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.098\r\n S\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.066\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.125\r\n Black\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.429\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.632\r\n Asian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.216\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.380\r\n Hispanic 0.247\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.424\r\n State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.474\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.670<\/pre>\n
 <\/p>\n
Republicans, 2016<\/strong>
\nModel coefficients
\nEstimate Std. Error CI.lower CI.upper
\nCA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.101\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.065\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.14
\nS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.172\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.019\u00a0\u00a0 -0.210\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.13
\nBlack\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.746\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.018\u00a0\u00a0 -0.781\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.71
\nAsian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.272\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.013\u00a0\u00a0 -0.297\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.25
\nHispanic\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.386\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.016\u00a0\u00a0 -0.416\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.36
\nState: Alabama\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.000\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA
\nState: Arizona\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.253\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.173\u00a0\u00a0 -1.592\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.91
\nState: Arkansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.621\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.095\u00a0\u00a0 -0.806\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.44
\nState: California\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.845\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.112\u00a0\u00a0 -1.065\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.62
\nState: Colorado\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.264\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.105\u00a0\u00a0 -1.471\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.06
\nState: Connecticut\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.754\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.211\u00a0\u00a0 -2.167\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.34
\nState: Delaware\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.136\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.328\u00a0\u00a0 -1.779\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.49
\nState: Florida\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.531\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099\u00a0\u00a0 -0.725\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.34
\nState: Georgia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.039\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.082\u00a0\u00a0 -0.122\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.20
\nState: Idaho\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.940\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.112\u00a0\u00a0 -1.160\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.72
\nState: Illinois\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.113\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.092\u00a0\u00a0 -1.293\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.93
\nState: Indiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.052\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.094\u00a0\u00a0 -1.236\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.87
\nState: Iowa\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.409\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.094\u00a0\u00a0 -1.592\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.23
\nState: Kansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.523\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.093\u00a0\u00a0 -0.705\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.34
\nState: Kentucky\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.859\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.090\u00a0\u00a0 -1.036\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.68
\nState: Louisiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.118\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.097\u00a0\u00a0 -0.073\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.31
\nState: Maine\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.384\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.157\u00a0\u00a0 -2.692\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.08
\nState: Maryland\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.873\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.135\u00a0\u00a0 -1.138\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.61
\nState: Massachusetts\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.649\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.168\u00a0\u00a0 -2.978\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.32
\nState: Michigan\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.504\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.095\u00a0\u00a0 -1.690\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.32
\nState: Minnesota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.554\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.096\u00a0\u00a0 -1.743\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.37
\nState: Mississippi\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.013\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.093\u00a0\u00a0 -0.194\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.17
\nState: Missouri\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.726\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.090\u00a0\u00a0 -0.902\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.55
\nState: Montana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.299\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.107\u00a0\u00a0 -1.508\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.09
\nState: Nebraska\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.445\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.096\u00a0\u00a0 -0.634\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.26
\nState: Nevada\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.537\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.154\u00a0\u00a0 -0.839\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.24
\nState: New Hampshire\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.275\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.191\u00a0\u00a0 -2.650\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.90
\nState: New Jersey\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.878\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.152\u00a0\u00a0 -1.175\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.58
\nState: New Mexico\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.087\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.131\u00a0\u00a0 -1.343\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.83
\nState: New York\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.516\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.103\u00a0\u00a0 -1.717\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.32
\nState: North Carolina\u00a0\u00a0 -0.712\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.090\u00a0\u00a0 -0.888\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.54
\nState: North Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.111\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.109\u00a0\u00a0 -1.325\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.90
\nState: Ohio\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.207\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.096\u00a0\u00a0 -1.395\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.02
\nState: Oklahoma\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.406\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.096\u00a0\u00a0 -0.594\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.22
\nState: Oregon\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.500\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.120\u00a0\u00a0 -1.735\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.27
\nState: Pennsylvania\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.159\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.101\u00a0\u00a0 -1.357\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.96
\nState: Rhode Island\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.342\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.259\u00a0\u00a0 -2.851\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.83
\nState: South Carolina\u00a0\u00a0 -0.334\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.107\u00a0\u00a0 -0.543\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.12
\nState: South Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.256\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.103\u00a0\u00a0 -1.457\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.05
\nState: Tennessee\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.538\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.091\u00a0\u00a0 -0.717\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.36
\nState: Texas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.189\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.088\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.016\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.36
\nState: Utah\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.243\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.128\u00a0\u00a0 -1.493\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.99
\nState: Vermont\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -3.081\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.166\u00a0\u00a0 -3.407\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.75
\nState: Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.840\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.086\u00a0\u00a0 -1.010\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.67
\nState: Washington\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.572\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.116\u00a0\u00a0 -1.800\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.34
\nState: West Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.822\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.105\u00a0\u00a0 -1.028\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.62
\nState: Wisconsin\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.806\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099\u00a0\u00a0 -2.001\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.61
\nState: Wyoming\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.525\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.138\u00a0\u00a0 -0.796\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.25<\/code><\/p>\n
Model meta-data\r\n outcome\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00a0 R2 R2-adj. R2-cv\r\n 1 rep16_frac 3062 0.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.69\u00a0 0.68\r\n\r\nEtas from analysis of variance\r\n eta eta.part\r\n CA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.056\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.10\r\n S\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.089\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.16\r\n Black\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.418\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.61\r\n Asian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.216\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.37\r\n Hispanic 0.248\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.41\r\n State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.496\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.67<\/pre>\n
 <\/p>\n
Greens, 2016<\/strong>
\nModel coefficients
\nEstimate Std. Error CI.lower CI.upper
\nCA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.150\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.025\u00a0\u00a0 -0.198\u00a0\u00a0 -0.101
\nS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.076\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.027\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.023\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.128
\nBlack\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.093\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.024\u00a0\u00a0 -0.140\u00a0\u00a0 -0.045
\nAsian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.097\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.017\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.063\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.131
\nHispanic\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.030\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.021\u00a0\u00a0 -0.072\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.012
\nState: Alabama\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.000\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA
\nState: Arizona\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.561\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.215\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.139\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.983
\nState: Arkansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.542\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.118\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.310\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.773
\nState: California\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.970\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.142\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.691\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.248
\nState: Colorado\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.466\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.133\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.206\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.726
\nState: Connecticut\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.942\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.263\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.426\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.458
\nState: Delaware\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.605\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.407\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.806\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.404
\nState: Florida\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.399\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.124\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.157\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.642
\nState: Idaho\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.990\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.141\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.712\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.267
\nState: Illinois\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.163\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.116\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.936\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.390
\nState: Iowa\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.403\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.118\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.171\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.635
\nState: Kansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.333\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.117\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.103\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.563
\nState: Kentucky\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.362\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.114\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.138\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.586
\nState: Louisiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.273\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.121\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.036\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.510
\nState: Maine\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.606\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.196\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.221\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.991
\nState: Maryland\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.284\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.169\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.952\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.615
\nState: Massachusetts\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.365\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.210\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.954\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.777
\nState: Michigan\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.129\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.120\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.895\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.364
\nState: Minnesota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.077\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.122\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.837\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.316
\nState: Mississippi\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.045\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.115\u00a0\u00a0 -0.271\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.181
\nState: Missouri\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.475\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.113\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.253\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.696
\nState: Montana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.407\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.135\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.143\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.671
\nState: Nebraska\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.603\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.122\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.363\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.842
\nState: New Hampshire\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.944\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.239\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.477\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.412
\nState: New Jersey\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.895\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.190\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.522\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.268
\nState: New Mexico\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.037\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.164\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.715\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.359
\nState: New York\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.048\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.129\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.795\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.301
\nState: North Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.145\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.137\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.876\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.415
\nState: Ohio\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.700\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.121\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.463\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.937
\nState: Oregon\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.651\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.150\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.356\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.946
\nState: Pennsylvania\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.653\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.127\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.405\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.902
\nState: Rhode Island\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.675\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.323\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.041\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.308
\nState: South Carolina\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.301\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.133\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.041\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.560
\nState: Tennessee\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.200\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.115\u00a0\u00a0 -0.025\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.424
\nState: Texas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.299\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.112\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.079\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.519
\nState: Utah\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.267\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.161\u00a0\u00a0 -0.048\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.582
\nState: Vermont\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.966\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.208\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.558\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.374
\nState: Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.475\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.108\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.264\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.687
\nState: Washington\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.454\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.146\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.167\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.740
\nState: West Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.012\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.132\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.753\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.271
\nState: Wisconsin\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.021\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.126\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.775\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.267
\nState: Wyoming\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.868\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.173\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.529\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.208<\/code><\/p>\n
Model meta-data\r\n outcome\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00a0\u00a0 R2 R2-adj. R2-cv\r\n 1 green16_frac 2556 0.54\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.53\u00a0 0.54\r\n\r\nEtas from analysis of variance\r\n eta eta.part\r\n CA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.082\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.119\r\n S\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.039\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.057\r\n Black\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.052\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.076\r\n Asian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.077\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.112\r\n Hispanic 0.019\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.028\r\n State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.591\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.655<\/pre>\n
 <\/p>\n
Libertarians, 2016<\/strong>
\nModel coefficients
\nEstimate Std. Error CI.lower CI.upper
\nCA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.0038\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.017\u00a0 -0.0373\u00a0\u00a0 0.0296
\nS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.3505\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.018\u00a0\u00a0 0.3146\u00a0\u00a0 0.3865
\nBlack\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.0317\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.017\u00a0 -0.0648\u00a0\u00a0 0.0015
\nAsian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.0143\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.012\u00a0 -0.0091\u00a0\u00a0 0.0377
\nHispanic\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.0738\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.015\u00a0\u00a0 0.0449\u00a0\u00a0 0.1026
\nState: Alabama\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.0000\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA
\nState: Arizona\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.2045\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.163\u00a0\u00a0 0.8846\u00a0\u00a0 1.5244
\nState: Arkansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.2946\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.089\u00a0\u00a0 0.1192\u00a0\u00a0 0.4700
\nState: California\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.6799\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.106\u00a0\u00a0 0.4719\u00a0\u00a0 0.8880
\nState: Colorado\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.0910\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099\u00a0\u00a0 0.8962\u00a0\u00a0 1.2858
\nState: Connecticut\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.3227\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.199\u00a0 -0.0684\u00a0\u00a0 0.7138
\nState: Delaware\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.7064\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.310\u00a0\u00a0 0.0984\u00a0\u00a0 1.3144
\nState: Florida\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.0761\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.093\u00a0 -0.1071\u00a0\u00a0 0.2593
\nState: Georgia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.3307\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.077\u00a0\u00a0 0.1789\u00a0\u00a0 0.4826
\nState: Idaho\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.6224\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.106\u00a0\u00a0 0.4142\u00a0\u00a0 0.8307
\nState: Illinois\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.2047\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.087\u00a0\u00a0 1.0347\u00a0\u00a0 1.3748
\nState: Indiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.6818\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.089\u00a0\u00a0 1.5075\u00a0\u00a0 1.8561
\nState: Iowa\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.4954\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.088\u00a0\u00a0 0.3221\u00a0\u00a0 0.6687
\nState: Kansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.9395\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.088\u00a0\u00a0 0.7679\u00a0\u00a0 1.1111
\nState: Kentucky\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.4006\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.085\u00a0\u00a0 0.2331\u00a0\u00a0 0.5680
\nState: Louisiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.0810\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.092\u00a0 -0.2614\u00a0\u00a0 0.0995
\nState: Maine\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.9222\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.149\u00a0\u00a0 1.6309\u00a0\u00a0 2.2136
\nState: Maryland\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.4547\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.128\u00a0\u00a0 0.2039\u00a0\u00a0 0.7056
\nState: Massachusetts\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.8918\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.159\u00a0\u00a0 0.5809\u00a0\u00a0 1.2028
\nState: Michigan\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.0787\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.090\u00a0\u00a0 0.9024\u00a0\u00a0 1.2549
\nState: Minnesota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.7014\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.091\u00a0\u00a0 0.5227\u00a0\u00a0 0.8801
\nState: Mississippi\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.1593\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.088\u00a0 -0.3309\u00a0\u00a0 0.0123
\nState: Missouri\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.6371\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.085\u00a0\u00a0 0.4711\u00a0\u00a0 0.8032
\nState: Montana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.7722\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.101\u00a0\u00a0 1.5742\u00a0\u00a0 1.9703
\nState: Nebraska\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.9864\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.091\u00a0\u00a0 0.8076\u00a0\u00a0 1.1652
\nState: Nevada\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.8487\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.145\u00a0\u00a0 0.5635\u00a0\u00a0 1.1339
\nState: New Hampshire\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.9316\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.181\u00a0\u00a0 0.5773\u00a0\u00a0 1.2860
\nState: New Jersey\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.4833\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.143\u00a0 -0.7645\u00a0 -0.2021
\nState: New Mexico\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.4179\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.124\u00a0\u00a0 4.1754\u00a0\u00a0 4.6604
\nState: New York\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.7390\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.097\u00a0\u00a0 0.5490\u00a0\u00a0 0.9291
\nState: North Carolina\u00a0\u00a0 0.3557\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.085\u00a0\u00a0 0.1894\u00a0\u00a0 0.5220
\nState: North Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.0401\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.103\u00a0\u00a0 1.8380\u00a0\u00a0 2.2422
\nState: Ohio\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.6618\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.090\u00a0\u00a0 0.4846\u00a0\u00a0 0.8391
\nState: Oklahoma\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.7475\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.091\u00a0\u00a0 1.5691\u00a0\u00a0 1.9259
\nState: Oregon\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.8205\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.113\u00a0\u00a0 1.5986\u00a0\u00a0 2.0424
\nState: Pennsylvania\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.0888\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.095\u00a0 -0.0976\u00a0\u00a0 0.2753
\nState: Rhode Island\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.5527\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.245\u00a0\u00a0 0.0718\u00a0\u00a0 1.0336
\nState: South Carolina\u00a0\u00a0 0.1063\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.101\u00a0 -0.0913\u00a0\u00a0 0.3040
\nState: South Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.6102\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.097\u00a0\u00a0 1.4197\u00a0\u00a0 1.8008
\nState: Tennessee\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.2270\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.086\u00a0\u00a0 0.0577\u00a0\u00a0 0.3964
\nState: Texas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.1331\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.084\u00a0 -0.0307\u00a0\u00a0 0.2970
\nState: Utah\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.0389\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.121\u00a0 -0.2762\u00a0\u00a0 0.1983
\nState: Vermont\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.6762\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.157\u00a0\u00a0 0.3676\u00a0\u00a0 0.9847
\nState: Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.3101\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.082\u00a0\u00a0 0.1500\u00a0\u00a0 0.4701
\nState: Washington\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.1375\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.110\u00a0\u00a0 0.9218\u00a0\u00a0 1.3532
\nState: West Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.7544\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099\u00a0\u00a0 0.5600\u00a0\u00a0 0.9488
\nState: Wisconsin\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.5313\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.094\u00a0\u00a0 0.3471\u00a0\u00a0 0.7155
\nState: Wyoming\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.5085\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.131\u00a0\u00a0 1.2524\u00a0\u00a0 1.7645<\/code><\/p>\n
Model meta-data\r\n outcome\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00a0\u00a0 R2 R2-adj. R2-cv\r\n 1 libert16_frac 3062 0.73\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.73\u00a0 0.72<\/pre>\n
Etas from analysis of variance\r\n eta eta.part\r\n CA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.0021\u00a0\u00a0 0.0041\r\n S\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.1810\u00a0\u00a0 0.3291\r\n Black\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.0177\u00a0\u00a0 0.0341\r\n Asian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.0114\u00a0\u00a0 0.0219\r\n Hispanic 0.0475\u00a0\u00a0 0.0910\r\n State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.6146\u00a0\u00a0 0.7637<\/pre>\n
 <\/p>\n
Democrats, 2012<\/strong>
\nModel coefficients
\nEstimate Std. Error CI.lower CI.upper
\nCA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.136\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.018\u00a0\u00a0 -0.172\u00a0\u00a0 -0.099
\nS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.026\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.020\u00a0\u00a0 -0.065\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.013
\nBlack\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.646\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.611\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.682
\nAsian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.210\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.013\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.185\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.236
\nHispanic\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.319\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.016\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.288\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.350
\nState: Alabama\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.000\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA
\nState: Arizona\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.959\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.177\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.612\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.306
\nState: Arkansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.376\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.097\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.186\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.566
\nState: California\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.845\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.115\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.620\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.071
\nState: Colorado\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.324\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.108\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.113\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.534
\nState: Connecticut\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.204\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.216\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.781\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.628
\nState: Delaware\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.401\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.336\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.742\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.059
\nState: Florida\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.604\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.101\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.406\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.803
\nState: Georgia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.057\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.084\u00a0\u00a0 -0.221\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.108
\nState: Idaho\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.488\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.115\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.262\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.714
\nState: Illinois\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.424\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.094\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.240\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.608
\nState: Indiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.322\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.096\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.134\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.511
\nState: Iowa\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.040\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.096\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.853\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.228
\nState: Kansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.448\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.095\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.263\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.634
\nState: Kentucky\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.844\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.093\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.662\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.025
\nState: Louisiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.248\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.100\u00a0\u00a0 -0.444\u00a0\u00a0 -0.053
\nState: Maine\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.602\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.161\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.286\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.918
\nState: Maryland\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.135\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.139\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.863\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.407
\nState: Massachusetts\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.750\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.172\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.413\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.087
\nState: Michigan\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.806\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.097\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.615\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.997
\nState: Minnesota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.026\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.833\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.220
\nState: Mississippi\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.059\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.095\u00a0\u00a0 -0.244\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.127
\nState: Missouri\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.973\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.092\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.793\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.152
\nState: Montana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.290\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.109\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.075\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.504
\nState: Nebraska\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.644\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.451\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.838
\nState: Nevada\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.517\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.158\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.208\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.826
\nState: New Hampshire\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.567\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.196\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.183\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.951
\nState: New Jersey\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.401\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.155\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.097\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.706
\nState: New Mexico\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.835\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.134\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.572\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.097
\nState: New York\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.946\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.105\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.740\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.152
\nState: North Carolina\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.790\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.092\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.610\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.970
\nState: North Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.439\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.112\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.220\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.658
\nState: Ohio\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.662\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.098\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.470\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.854
\nState: Oklahoma\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.369\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.175\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.562
\nState: Oregon\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.403\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.123\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.163\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.644
\nState: Pennsylvania\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.479\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.103\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.277\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.681
\nState: Rhode Island\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.731\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.266\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.210\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.252
\nState: South Carolina\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.320\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.109\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.106\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.534
\nState: South Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.538\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.105\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.332\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.743
\nState: Tennessee\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.603\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.094\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.420\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.787
\nState: Texas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.236\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.091\u00a0\u00a0 -0.413\u00a0\u00a0 -0.058
\nState: Utah\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.032\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.131\u00a0\u00a0 -0.225\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.289
\nState: Vermont\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.380\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.170\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.046\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.714
\nState: Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.967\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.088\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.794\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.141
\nState: Washington\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.511\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.119\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.278\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.745
\nState: West Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.928\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.107\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.718\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.139
\nState: Wisconsin\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.270\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.102\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.070\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.469
\nState: Wyoming\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.439\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.141\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.162\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.717<\/code><\/p>\n
Model meta-data\r\n outcome\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00a0\u00a0 R2 R2-adj. R2-cv\r\n 1 dem12_frac 3063 0.68\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.68\u00a0 0.67\r\n\r\nEtas from analysis of variance\r\n eta eta.part\r\n CA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.075\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.132\r\n S\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.013\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.024\r\n Black\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.363\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.542\r\n Asian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.167\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.285\r\n Hispanic 0.205\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.343\r\n State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.619\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.740<\/pre>\n
 <\/p>\n
Republicans 2012<\/strong>
\nModel coefficients
\nEstimate Std. Error CI.lower CI.upper
\nCA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.138\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.019\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.102\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.175
\nS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.026\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.020\u00a0\u00a0 -0.013\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.066
\nBlack\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.624\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.019\u00a0\u00a0 -0.661\u00a0\u00a0 -0.588
\nAsian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.211\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.013\u00a0\u00a0 -0.237\u00a0\u00a0 -0.185
\nHispanic\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.310\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.016\u00a0\u00a0 -0.341\u00a0\u00a0 -0.278
\nState: Alabama\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.000\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA
\nState: Arizona\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.016\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.179\u00a0\u00a0 -1.367\u00a0\u00a0 -0.665
\nState: Arkansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.481\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.098\u00a0\u00a0 -0.674\u00a0\u00a0 -0.288
\nState: California\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.973\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.117\u00a0\u00a0 -1.201\u00a0\u00a0 -0.744
\nState: Colorado\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.411\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.109\u00a0\u00a0 -1.625\u00a0\u00a0 -1.197
\nState: Connecticut\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.210\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.219\u00a0\u00a0 -2.640\u00a0\u00a0 -1.781
\nState: Delaware\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.425\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.341\u00a0\u00a0 -2.092\u00a0\u00a0 -0.757
\nState: Florida\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.596\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.103\u00a0\u00a0 -0.797\u00a0\u00a0 -0.395
\nState: Georgia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.047\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.085\u00a0\u00a0 -0.120\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.214
\nState: Idaho\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.582\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.117\u00a0\u00a0 -0.810\u00a0\u00a0 -0.353
\nState: Illinois\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.469\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.095\u00a0\u00a0 -1.656\u00a0\u00a0 -1.282
\nState: Indiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.378\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.098\u00a0\u00a0 -1.569\u00a0\u00a0 -1.187
\nState: Iowa\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.066\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.097\u00a0\u00a0 -2.256\u00a0\u00a0 -1.875
\nState: Kansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.506\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.096\u00a0\u00a0 -0.695\u00a0\u00a0 -0.318
\nState: Kentucky\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.859\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.094\u00a0\u00a0 -1.043\u00a0\u00a0 -0.676
\nState: Louisiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.208\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.101\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.010\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.406
\nState: Maine\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.698\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.163\u00a0\u00a0 -3.018\u00a0\u00a0 -2.378
\nState: Maryland\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.211\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.140\u00a0\u00a0 -1.486\u00a0\u00a0 -0.935
\nState: Massachusetts\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.796\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.174\u00a0\u00a0 -3.137\u00a0\u00a0 -2.455
\nState: Michigan\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.792\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099\u00a0\u00a0 -1.986\u00a0\u00a0 -1.599
\nState: Minnesota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.093\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.100\u00a0\u00a0 -2.290\u00a0\u00a0 -1.897
\nState: Mississippi\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.047\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.096\u00a0\u00a0 -0.142\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.235
\nState: Missouri\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.027\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.093\u00a0\u00a0 -1.210\u00a0\u00a0 -0.845
\nState: Montana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.390\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.111\u00a0\u00a0 -1.608\u00a0\u00a0 -1.173
\nState: Nebraska\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.696\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.100\u00a0\u00a0 -0.893\u00a0\u00a0 -0.500
\nState: Nevada\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.643\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.160\u00a0\u00a0 -0.957\u00a0\u00a0 -0.330
\nState: New Hampshire\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.579\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.198\u00a0\u00a0 -2.968\u00a0\u00a0 -2.190
\nState: New Jersey\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.419\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.157\u00a0\u00a0 -1.728\u00a0\u00a0 -1.111
\nState: New Mexico\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.009\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.136\u00a0\u00a0 -1.275\u00a0\u00a0 -0.743
\nState: New York\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.987\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.106\u00a0\u00a0 -2.196\u00a0\u00a0 -1.779
\nState: North Carolina\u00a0\u00a0 -0.804\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.093\u00a0\u00a0 -0.987\u00a0\u00a0 -0.622
\nState: North Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.529\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.113\u00a0\u00a0 -1.751\u00a0\u00a0 -1.307
\nState: Ohio\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.717\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099\u00a0\u00a0 -1.912\u00a0\u00a0 -1.523
\nState: Oklahoma\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.272\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.100\u00a0\u00a0 -0.468\u00a0\u00a0 -0.076
\nState: Oregon\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.559\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.124\u00a0\u00a0 -1.803\u00a0\u00a0 -1.315
\nState: Pennsylvania\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.482\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.104\u00a0\u00a0 -1.687\u00a0\u00a0 -1.277
\nState: Rhode Island\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.780\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.269\u00a0\u00a0 -3.308\u00a0\u00a0 -2.252
\nState: South Carolina\u00a0\u00a0 -0.346\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.111\u00a0\u00a0 -0.563\u00a0\u00a0 -0.129
\nState: South Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.584\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.106\u00a0\u00a0 -1.792\u00a0\u00a0 -1.376
\nState: Tennessee\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.612\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.095\u00a0\u00a0 -0.798\u00a0\u00a0 -0.426
\nState: Texas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.228\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.092\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.048\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.408
\nState: Utah\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.084\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.133\u00a0\u00a0 -0.345\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.176
\nState: Vermont\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -3.447\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.173\u00a0\u00a0 -3.786\u00a0\u00a0 -3.108
\nState: Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.010\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.090\u00a0\u00a0 -1.185\u00a0\u00a0 -0.834
\nState: Washington\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.601\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.121\u00a0\u00a0 -1.838\u00a0\u00a0 -1.364
\nState: West Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.989\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.109\u00a0\u00a0 -1.202\u00a0\u00a0 -0.775
\nState: Wisconsin\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.262\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.103\u00a0\u00a0 -2.464\u00a0\u00a0 -2.059
\nState: Wyoming\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.581\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.143\u00a0\u00a0 -0.862\u00a0\u00a0 -0.300<\/code><\/p>\n
Model meta-data\r\n outcome\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00a0\u00a0 R2 R2-adj. R2-cv\r\n 1 rep12_frac 3063 0.67\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.67\u00a0 0.66\r\n\r\nEtas from analysis of variance\r\n eta eta.part\r\n CA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.077\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.133\r\n S\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.014\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.024\r\n Black\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.350\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.523\r\n Asian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.168\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.282\r\n Hispanic 0.200\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.330\r\n State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.626\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.739<\/pre>\n
 <\/p>\n
Democrats, 2008<\/strong>
\nModel coefficients
\nEstimate Std. Error CI.lower CI.upper
\nCA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.118\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.020\u00a0\u00a0 -0.156\u00a0 -0.0793
\nS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.045\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.021\u00a0\u00a0 -0.086\u00a0 -0.0038
\nBlack\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.609\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.019\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.571\u00a0\u00a0 0.6470
\nAsian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.215\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.014\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.188\u00a0\u00a0 0.2415
\nHispanic\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.280\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.017\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.247\u00a0\u00a0 0.3131
\nState: Alabama\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.000\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA
\nState: Arizona\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.005\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.187\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.639\u00a0\u00a0 1.3719
\nState: Arkansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.477\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.103\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.276\u00a0\u00a0 0.6776
\nState: California\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.054\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.122\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.815\u00a0\u00a0 1.2922
\nState: Colorado\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.512\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.114\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.289\u00a0\u00a0 1.7349
\nState: Connecticut\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.444\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.229\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.996\u00a0\u00a0 2.8920
\nState: Delaware\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.666\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.355\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.969\u00a0\u00a0 2.3626
\nState: Florida\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.700\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.107\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.491\u00a0\u00a0 0.9104
\nState: Georgia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.014\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.089\u00a0\u00a0 -0.160\u00a0\u00a0 0.1883
\nState: Idaho\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.626\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.122\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.388\u00a0\u00a0 0.8650
\nState: Illinois\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.867\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.672\u00a0\u00a0 2.0617
\nState: Indiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.758\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.102\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.558\u00a0\u00a0 1.9573
\nState: Iowa\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.236\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.101\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.038\u00a0\u00a0 2.4347
\nState: Kansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.592\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.100\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.395\u00a0\u00a0 0.7887
\nState: Kentucky\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.068\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.098\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.876\u00a0\u00a0 1.2600
\nState: Louisiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.253\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.105\u00a0\u00a0 -0.460\u00a0 -0.0461
\nState: Maine\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.698\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.170\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.364\u00a0\u00a0 3.0317
\nState: Maryland\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.211\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.147\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.924\u00a0\u00a0 1.4988
\nState: Massachusetts\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.916\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.182\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.559\u00a0\u00a0 3.2718
\nState: Michigan\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.100\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.103\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.898\u00a0\u00a0 2.3017
\nState: Minnesota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.170\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.104\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.966\u00a0\u00a0 2.3752
\nState: Mississippi\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.057\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.100\u00a0\u00a0 -0.253\u00a0\u00a0 0.1401
\nState: Missouri\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.308\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.097\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.117\u00a0\u00a0 1.4978
\nState: Montana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.603\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.116\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.376\u00a0\u00a0 1.8296
\nState: Nebraska\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.800\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.104\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.595\u00a0\u00a0 1.0050
\nState: Nevada\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.809\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.167\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.482\u00a0\u00a0 1.1356
\nState: New Hampshire\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.730\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.207\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.324\u00a0\u00a0 3.1360
\nState: New Jersey\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.424\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.164\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.102\u00a0\u00a0 1.7461
\nState: New Mexico\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.208\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.142\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.930\u00a0\u00a0 1.4857
\nState: New York\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.978\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.111\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.760\u00a0\u00a0 2.1954
\nState: North Carolina\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.923\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.097\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.732\u00a0\u00a0 1.1133
\nState: North Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.820\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.118\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.588\u00a0\u00a0 2.0512
\nState: Ohio\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.728\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.104\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.525\u00a0\u00a0 1.9308
\nState: Oklahoma\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.369\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.104\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.165\u00a0\u00a0 0.5737
\nState: Oregon\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.610\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.130\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.356\u00a0\u00a0 1.8644
\nState: Pennsylvania\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.727\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.109\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.513\u00a0\u00a0 1.9406
\nState: Rhode Island\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.849\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.281\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.298\u00a0\u00a0 3.3999
\nState: South Carolina\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.396\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.115\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.170\u00a0\u00a0 0.6227
\nState: South Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.819\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.111\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.602\u00a0\u00a0 2.0364
\nState: Tennessee\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.765\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.571\u00a0\u00a0 0.9589
\nState: Texas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.020\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.096\u00a0\u00a0 -0.208\u00a0\u00a0 0.1673
\nState: Utah\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.510\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.139\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.238\u00a0\u00a0 0.7816
\nState: Vermont\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.485\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.180\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.132\u00a0\u00a0 3.8387
\nState: Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.154\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.094\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.971\u00a0\u00a0 1.3373
\nState: Washington\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.662\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.126\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.415\u00a0\u00a0 1.9092
\nState: West Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.408\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.114\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.185\u00a0\u00a0 1.6309
\nState: Wisconsin\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.585\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.108\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.374\u00a0\u00a0 2.7964
\nState: Wyoming\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.669\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.150\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.375\u00a0\u00a0 0.9618<\/code><\/p>\n
Model meta-data\r\n outcome\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00a0\u00a0 R2 R2-adj. R2-cv\r\n 1 dem08_frac 3063 0.65\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.64\u00a0 0.63\r\n\r\nEtas from analysis of variance\r\n eta eta.part\r\n CA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.065\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.109\r\n S\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.023\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.039\r\n Black\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.342\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.498\r\n Asian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.171\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.276\r\n Hispanic 0.180\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.290\r\n State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.650\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.738<\/pre>\n
 <\/p>\n
Republicans, 2008<\/strong>
\nModel coefficients
\nEstimate Std. Error CI.lower CI.upper
\nCA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.118\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.020\u00a0\u00a0 0.0795\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.157
\nS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.055\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.021\u00a0\u00a0 0.0137\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.096
\nBlack\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.586\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.019\u00a0 -0.6237\u00a0\u00a0 -0.548
\nAsian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.213\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.014\u00a0 -0.2394\u00a0\u00a0 -0.186
\nHispanic\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.269\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.017\u00a0 -0.3026\u00a0\u00a0 -0.236
\nState: Alabama\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.000\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NA
\nState: Arizona\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.026\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.188\u00a0 -1.3945\u00a0\u00a0 -0.658
\nState: Arkansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.612\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.103\u00a0 -0.8139\u00a0\u00a0 -0.410
\nState: California\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.160\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.122\u00a0 -1.3994\u00a0\u00a0 -0.920
\nState: Colorado\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.571\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.114\u00a0 -1.7953\u00a0\u00a0 -1.347
\nState: Connecticut\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.479\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.230\u00a0 -2.9297\u00a0\u00a0 -2.029
\nState: Delaware\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.684\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.357\u00a0 -2.3848\u00a0\u00a0 -0.984
\nState: Florida\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.698\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.108\u00a0 -0.9085\u00a0\u00a0 -0.486
\nState: Georgia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.012\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.089\u00a0 -0.1866\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.163
\nState: Idaho\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.725\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.122\u00a0 -0.9651\u00a0\u00a0 -0.485
\nState: Illinois\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.905\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.100\u00a0 -2.1011\u00a0\u00a0 -1.709
\nState: Indiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.771\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.102\u00a0 -1.9721\u00a0\u00a0 -1.571
\nState: Iowa\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.277\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.102\u00a0 -2.4770\u00a0\u00a0 -2.078
\nState: Kansas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.638\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.101\u00a0 -0.8356\u00a0\u00a0 -0.440
\nState: Kentucky\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.087\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.098\u00a0 -1.2802\u00a0\u00a0 -0.894
\nState: Louisiana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.201\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.106\u00a0 -0.0064\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.409
\nState: Maine\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.753\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.171\u00a0 -3.0890\u00a0\u00a0 -2.418
\nState: Maryland\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.276\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.147\u00a0 -1.5644\u00a0\u00a0 -0.987
\nState: Massachusetts\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -3.008\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.183\u00a0 -3.3657\u00a0\u00a0 -2.649
\nState: Michigan\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.146\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.104\u00a0 -2.3493\u00a0\u00a0 -1.943
\nState: Minnesota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.269\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.105\u00a0 -2.4747\u00a0\u00a0 -2.063
\nState: Mississippi\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.046\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.101\u00a0 -0.1518\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.244
\nState: Missouri\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.342\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.098\u00a0 -1.5336\u00a0\u00a0 -1.151
\nState: Montana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.760\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.116\u00a0 -1.9885\u00a0\u00a0 -1.532
\nState: Nebraska\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.861\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.105\u00a0 -1.0665\u00a0\u00a0 -0.655
\nState: Nevada\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.984\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.168\u00a0 -1.3127\u00a0\u00a0 -0.656
\nState: New Hampshire\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.747\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.208\u00a0 -3.1548\u00a0\u00a0 -2.339
\nState: New Jersey\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.454\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.165\u00a0 -1.7781\u00a0\u00a0 -1.130
\nState: New Mexico\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.242\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.142\u00a0 -1.5216\u00a0\u00a0 -0.963
\nState: New York\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.012\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.112\u00a0 -2.2308\u00a0\u00a0 -1.793
\nState: North Carolina\u00a0\u00a0 -0.927\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.098\u00a0 -1.1188\u00a0\u00a0 -0.736
\nState: North Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.899\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.119\u00a0 -2.1321\u00a0\u00a0 -1.666
\nState: Ohio\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.786\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.104\u00a0 -1.9901\u00a0\u00a0 -1.582
\nState: Oklahoma\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.273\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.105\u00a0 -0.4785\u00a0\u00a0 -0.067
\nState: Oregon\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.750\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.130\u00a0 -2.0059\u00a0\u00a0 -1.495
\nState: Pennsylvania\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.746\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.110\u00a0 -1.9607\u00a0\u00a0 -1.531
\nState: Rhode Island\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.922\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.283\u00a0 -3.4759\u00a0\u00a0 -2.368
\nState: South Carolina\u00a0\u00a0 -0.429\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.116\u00a0 -0.6565\u00a0\u00a0 -0.201
\nState: South Dakota\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.893\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.111\u00a0 -2.1112\u00a0\u00a0 -1.674
\nState: Tennessee\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.788\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.099\u00a0 -0.9826\u00a0\u00a0 -0.593
\nState: Texas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.027\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.096\u00a0 -0.1613\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.216
\nState: Utah\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.652\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.139\u00a0 -0.9248\u00a0\u00a0 -0.378
\nState: Vermont\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -3.556\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.181\u00a0 -3.9110\u00a0\u00a0 -3.200
\nState: Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.176\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.094\u00a0 -1.3603\u00a0\u00a0 -0.992
\nState: Washington\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.738\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.127\u00a0 -1.9868\u00a0\u00a0 -1.490
\nState: West Virginia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -1.450\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.114\u00a0 -1.6740\u00a0\u00a0 -1.226
\nState: Wisconsin\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -2.613\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.108\u00a0 -2.8253\u00a0\u00a0 -2.401
\nState: Wyoming\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.781\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.150\u00a0 -1.0759\u00a0\u00a0 -0.486<\/code><\/p>\n
Model meta-data\r\n outcome\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00a0\u00a0 R2 R2-adj. R2-cv\r\n 1 rep08_frac 3063 0.64\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.64\u00a0 0.63\r\n\r\nEtas from analysis of variance\r\n eta eta.part\r\n CA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.065\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.109\r\n S\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.028\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.047\r\n Black\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.329\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.482\r\n Asian\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.169\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.272\r\n Hispanic 0.174\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.279\r\n State\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.661\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.741<\/pre>\n
Summary & interpretation<\/strong><\/p>\n
In general, the models performed fairly well, the mean cross-validated R2 was 65% (54% to 72%). The best way to summarize the findings for the predictors would be to aggregate\/meta-analyze the results. I’m too busy to do that now, so we will just look at the non-state predictors presented in less space:<\/p>\n
     CA     S Black Asian Hispanic       group\r\n1 -0.09  0.13  0.77  0.27     0.38   fit_dem16\r\n2  0.10 -0.17 -0.75 -0.27    -0.39   fit_rep16\r\n3 -0.15  0.08 -0.09  0.10    -0.03 fit_green16\r\n4  0.00  0.35 -0.03  0.01     0.07 fit_liber16\r\n5 -0.14 -0.03  0.65  0.21     0.32   fit_dem12\r\n6  0.14  0.03 -0.62 -0.21    -0.31   fit_rep12\r\n7 -0.12 -0.04  0.61  0.21     0.28   fit_dem08\r\n8  0.12  0.06 -0.59 -0.21    -0.27   fit_rep08<\/pre>\n
So, for predicting democrat votes, we can see that the betas are all negative for CA: -.09, -.14 and -.12. All else equal, smarter counties voted less for democrats, whether it was Clinton or Obama. S is weird. The beta for 2016 was .13 but it was -.03 and -.04 for 2012 and 2008! A sign change and it’s not a chance finding because the use of a dataset with n\u22483,000 gives us a lot of precision, and none of these did actually have CIs that even overlapped zero. So for 2016 this gives us the odd situation where the highly correlated CA and S variables (r = .71) have reverse signs for the outcome: -.09 and .13. Smarter counties voted less for democrats, but those higher in S voted more for democrats — all else equal. That wasn’t so in the Obama elections where CA and S had the same directions. As for demographics, the situation is not surprising: non-Whites like democrats, a lot. We knew this from simpler statistics showing that Blacks vote 93% for Obama<\/a>. The curious finding here is that this was not just due to the lower CA and S for Blacks or Hispanics. The Black effect was even stronger for the 2016 election than the Obama ones, which is somewhat curious. The general idea seems to be that minorities like to vote for their own candidates, but it seems not to be the case for these data. Or there’s some annoying confound, like turnout %. Hispanics are voting increasingly for democrats (betas: .28 to .32 to .38) and Asians too, maybe (.21 to .21 to .27). The republican results are not so interesting because they are essentially the opposite of the democrat results (for non-2016, they are necessarily the opposite because NYT did away with the third party votes).<\/p>\n
Results for the two smaller parties are somewhat interesting. Greens showed the same mismatch in directionality for CA and S, just with reversed beta strengths (-.15 and .08; CA stronger, reverse for democrats). Interestingly for libertarians, there was no effect of CA, but a large one of S (.35). Given the generally positive correlations between libertarian preferences and CA, this is somewhat surprising (see this<\/a> and this<\/a>). Perhaps more interestingly, demographics had little to no effect on preferences for libertarians. This was also true to a bit lesser extent for greens.<\/p>\n
The relative importance of variables can be glanced from the etas. Most of the models’ validity is due to state-level effects (whatever these represent) and demographics, mostly % Blacks. The mean eta for State was .59 (range: .47 to .66), and for Black .29 (.02 to .43). The small values for Black are from the third parties which, as we saw, were not a thing that Blacks cared much about as a group once controlled for CA and S. CA and S themselves had mean etas of .06. As such, cognitive ability and social inequality were not particularly important for explaining the election outcomes at the county level.<\/p>\n
Other notes:<\/p>\n