{"id":6761,"date":"2017-06-01T13:43:50","date_gmt":"2017-06-01T12:43:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/?p=6761"},"modified":"2017-06-01T14:18:29","modified_gmt":"2017-06-01T13:18:29","slug":"science-and-politics-usa-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/2017\/06\/science-and-politics-usa-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"Science and politics: USA edition"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>One can find quite a lot of popular articles on the topic:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>https:\/\/newrepublic.com\/article\/139700\/democrats-party-science-not-really<\/li>\n<li>http:\/\/reason.com\/reasontv\/2016\/07\/15\/are-republicans-or-democrats-more-anti-s<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/climate-consensus-97-per-cent\/2016\/apr\/28\/can-the-republican-party-solve-its-science-denial-problem<\/li>\n<li>http:\/\/www.pewinternet.org\/2016\/10\/04\/the-politics-of-climate\/<\/li>\n<li>http:\/\/www.rollingstone.com\/politics\/features\/why-republicans-still-reject-the-science-of-global-warming-w448023<\/li>\n<li>http:\/\/www.politico.com\/magazine\/story\/2014\/06\/democrats-have-a-problem-with-science-too-107270<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/www.city-journal.org\/html\/real-war-science-14782.html<\/li>\n<li>http:\/\/www.motherjones.com\/environment\/2014\/09\/left-science-gmo-vaccines<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>with wildly diverging conclusions. So what is true? It at these times that we want to take a look at the raw data ourselves. Fortunately, <a href=\"http:\/\/anepigone.blogspot.dk\/2017\/05\/bill-nye-cant-deny-republicans-are-more.html\">The Audacious Epigone did some legwork for us<\/a>:<\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<colgroup width=\"439\"><\/colgroup>\n<colgroup width=\"59\"><\/colgroup>\n<colgroup width=\"50\"><\/colgroup>\n<colgroup width=\"129\"><\/colgroup>\n<colgroup width=\"85\"><\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Item<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Rep%<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Dem%<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\"><b>Rep. Adv. %points<\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\"><b>Field<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Astrology is not scientific<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">72.7<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">61.3<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">11.4<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Astronomy<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Father, not mother, determines a child&#8217;s sex<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">76.2<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">69.4<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">6.8<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Genetics<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Continental drift has and continues to occur<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">86.5<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">90.2<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-3.7<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Geology<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">The earth revolves around the sun<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">81.1<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">76.4<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">4.7<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Astronomy<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Electrons are smaller than atoms<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">70.7<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">68.7<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Physics<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Humans evolved from other animals<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">39.9<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">57.8<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-17.9<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Biology<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Understands the need for control groups in testing<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">82.3<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">80.3<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">General<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">The earth&#8217;s core is very hot<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">95.3<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">93.3<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Geology<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Lasers are not made by condensing sound waves<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">73.2<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">61.1<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">12.1<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Physics<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Demonstrates a basic understanding of probability<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">92.5<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">86.1<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">6.4<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Math<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Demonstrates a modestly more advanced understanding of probability<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">80.6<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">76<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">4.6<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Math<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Not all radioactivity is man-made<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">87.3<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">77<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">10.3<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Physics<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">It takes the earth one year to rotate around the sun<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">78<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">74.1<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">3.9<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Astronomy<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Antibiotics do not kill viruses<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">65<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">51.2<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">13.8<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Medicine<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Respondent does not refuse to eat genetically modified foods (2006)<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">72.6<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">61.4<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">11.2<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Genetics<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Genetics play a substantial role in determining personality (2004)<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">25.1<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">26<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-0.9<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Behavioral genetics<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Not all radioactivity is fatal to humans (2000)<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">76<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">67.2<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">8.8<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Physics<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">The greenhouse effect is caused by a hole in the earth&#8217;s atmosphere (2000)<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">38.7<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">42.7<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-4<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Climate science<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">The use of coal and oil contributes to the greenhouse effect (2000)<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">68.5<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">74.8<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-6.3<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Climate science<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Polar ice caps have shrunk over the last 25 years (2006, 2010)<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">93.4<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">91.8<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">1.6<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Climate science<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">The north pole is on a sheet of ice (2006, 2010)<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">57.6<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">67.7<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-10.1<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Climate science<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Demonstrates a basic understanding of nanotechnology (2006, 2008, 2010)<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">86.5<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">88.4<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-1.9<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Nano science<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Demonstrates a modestly more advanced understanding of nanotechnology (2006, 2008, 2010)<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">77.4<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">79.3<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">-1.9<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Nano science<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">It is not perpetually dark at the south pole (2006, 2010)<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">89<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">86.2<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2.8<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Geology?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Not all artificial chemicals cause cancer (2000)<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">53.9<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">51.5<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2.4<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Medicine<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" height=\"17\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">Understands that non-GMO tomatoes still have genetic material (2010)<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><b><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">73.4<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\"><span style=\"font-family: Liberation Serif;\">64.6<\/span><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">8.8<\/td>\n<td align=\"left\">Genetics<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>The side with the most gets the boldface. He does a crude count and finds a score of 18-8. The data is based on various waves of GSS, so it should be quite good in terms of sampling.<\/p>\n<p>Since my tweet with these is popular on Twitter<\/p>\n<div class=\"oceanwp-oembed-wrap clr\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">USA: Republicans are more scientifically literate than Democrats (depends on item sampling perhaps) <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NIsTxlq3Cu\">https:\/\/t.co\/NIsTxlq3Cu<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cvPdgIGh2i\">pic.twitter.com\/cvPdgIGh2i<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Emil O W Kirkegaard (@KirkegaardEmil) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KirkegaardEmil\/status\/869998369313361920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 31, 2017<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p>it seems like a good idea that I should say a few critical words on the method.<\/p>\n<p>First, not all items are present in all waves, some are present in only a single wave. This means that we cannot calculate a full correlation matrix directly. We could estimate it based on the observed correlations + some assumptions (see our method in <a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/etuy8\/files\/\">the Argentina Admixture project<\/a>). Without a full correlation matrix, it&#8217;s not easy to calculate scores at the person-level across all waves. Perhaps one should just adopt a simple scoring model: give 1 point for every correct answer, then divide by the number of items. Do this for all waves, and aggregate. Slightly more sophisticated is weighing the items by their difficulty: it counts as more to get a hard item right than an easy item. Note that this is essentially what IRT does (along with other things), so we are just mimicking a proper IRT analysis.<\/p>\n<p>Second, we should take into account the size of the gaps on the items (a continuous measure), not just which side has superiority (a dichotomous measure). It&#8217;s possible that one side just a lot of items right with minor advantages (e.g. 1-3%), and the other side got the remainder with a substantial advantage (&gt;10%). It can be done on the above data simply by summing the advantages for one side, and taking the mean. Using the Republicans, the number turns out to be 2.65%points, i.e. across the items, Republicans get an average of 2.65%points more correct. Quite small. It&#8217;s not easy to estimate a confidence interval using this method, so I don&#8217;t know how certain we are about this small advantage.<\/p>\n<p>Third, is that we should not assume that all items measure the construct of interest, scientific knowledge, with equal accuracy (akin to a factor loading, discrimination in IRT terms). Unfortunately, estimating the item discriminations requires a full correlation matrix.<\/p>\n<p>Fourth, the item sampling is questionable; many areas of science were not covered (e.g. linguistics, sociology, musicology, chemistry). Given that there are patterns in which kinds of science are denied by each side, one can sample items in such a way to make <em>any<\/em> side\/group superior. This is the same issue as with sex differences in cognitive ability, where spatial and chronometric tests are not often used, but shows advantages for men. In a perfect scenario, we would sample items at random from all possible items pertaining to scientific knowledge. In the real world, it&#8217;s not even easy to delimit what constitutes scientific knowledge, and it&#8217;s not clear how we should sample items. Do all bona fide fields count equally for the purpose of sampling? How do we decide on what is a field and what is a subfield etc.? It&#8217;s not an easy task! However, along with a few others, we are working on a new public domain scientific knowledge test with very broad sampling of items from the sciences. The plan is then to give this to a large broad sample and see what we get. Furthermore, akin to the <a href=\"https:\/\/openpsych.net\/paper\/5\">ICAR5<\/a>, we want to create briefer versions based on the full test performance. The currently popular tests tend to oversample physics and astronomy, which may have some effect on the results, especially for sex differences.<\/p>\n<p>Ok, so I did a little extra: http:\/\/rpubs.com\/EmilOWK\/GSS_science_simple_2017<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the basic plot, sorted by Republican advantage<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/by_item.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-6767\" src=\"http:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/by_item-1024x666.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"720\" height=\"468\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Then I coded the fields, and aggregated:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/by_field.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-6768\" src=\"http:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/by_field-1024x666.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"720\" height=\"468\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Note: the original version of The Audacious Epigone&#8217;s post had an error, which has now been fixed. The above results are from the fixed version. The fix relates to the scoring on the item with greenhouse gas and ozone layer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One can find quite a lot of popular articles on the topic: https:\/\/newrepublic.com\/article\/139700\/democrats-party-science-not-really http:\/\/reason.com\/reasontv\/2016\/07\/15\/are-republicans-or-democrats-more-anti-s https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/climate-consensus-97-per-cent\/2016\/apr\/28\/can-the-republican-party-solve-its-science-denial-problem http:\/\/www.pewinternet.org\/2016\/10\/04\/the-politics-of-climate\/ http:\/\/www.rollingstone.com\/politics\/features\/why-republicans-still-reject-the-science-of-global-warming-w448023 http:\/\/www.politico.com\/magazine\/story\/2014\/06\/democrats-have-a-problem-with-science-too-107270 https:\/\/www.city-journal.org\/html\/real-war-science-14782.html http:\/\/www.motherjones.com\/environment\/2014\/09\/left-science-gmo-vaccines with wildly diverging conclusions. So what is true? It at these times that we want to take a look at the raw data ourselves. Fortunately, The Audacious Epigone did some legwork for us: Item Rep% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2535,2533,2534,2105],"class_list":["post-6761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-democrat","tag-denialism","tag-republican","tag-scientific-knowledge","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6761","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6761"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6761\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6769,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6761\/revisions\/6769"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6761"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6761"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6761"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}