{"id":9146,"date":"2020-11-24T00:25:59","date_gmt":"2020-11-23T23:25:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/?p=9146"},"modified":"2020-11-24T00:25:59","modified_gmt":"2020-11-23T23:25:59","slug":"china-economy-predictions-1990-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/2020\/11\/china-economy-predictions-1990-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"China economy predictions: 1990-2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There is a list that&#8217;s floating around (meaning: <a href=\"https:\/\/cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com\/blogs.gwu.edu\/dist\/5\/1304\/files\/2018\/04\/ChuPPT-28b5h6o.pdf\">copy<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unz.com\/akarlin\/the-west-is-1-in-academic-freedom\/#comment-4294962\">pasted<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.quora.com\/Is-the-Chinese-Economy-really-slowing-down\/answer\/Godfree-Roberts\">without<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/search?q=%221990.+The+Economist.+China%27s+economy+has+come+to+a+halt.%22\">sources<\/a>), and it&#8217;s also got no exact sources, so it&#8217;s unclear how legit it is. So I did some searching to confirm, and this blogpost can then be the new reference post. I noted that some of the titles were wrong, sometimes they change titles retrospectively (<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.erratasec.com\/2016\/02\/weve-always-been-at-war-with-eastasia.html\">&#8220;we were always at war with&#8230;&#8221;<\/a>), but some of them seem to have been the original ones. I also added another prediction I found for 2019.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Confirmed sightings:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"q-box\">\n<li>1998. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/special\/1998\/10\/22\/red-alert\">The Economist: Red alert: China may be about to catch the Japanese disease. The consequences would be bad not only for China but for all of Asia; and also explosive politically<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2003. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2003\/06\/19\/opinion\/IHT-a-bad-loan-bubble-banking-crisis-imperils-china.html\">New York Times: A bad loan bubble : Banking crisis imperils China<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2004. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/leaders\/2004\/05\/13\/the-great-fall-of-china\">The Economist: The great fall of China?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2005. <a href=\"https:\/\/apjjf.org\/-Nouriel-Roubini\/2940\/article.html\">Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2006. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.international-economy.com\/TIE_F06_ChinaSoftLanding.pdf\">International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2007. <a href=\"http:\/\/content.time.com\/time\/world\/article\/0,8599,1612783,00.html\">TIME: Is China&#8217;s Economy Overheating?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2008. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/2008\/11\/05\/china-recession-roubini-oped-cx_nr_1106roubini.html\">Forbes: Hard Landing In China?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2009. <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.fortune.com\/2009\/03\/04\/news\/international\/powell_china.fortune\/index.htm\">Fortune: China&#8217;s hard landing<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2011: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com.au\/between-hard-landing-and-not-landing-2011-7\">Business Insider: Why A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2012: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.the-american-interest.com\/2012\/05\/25\/more-dismal-economic-news-from-china-is-a-hard-landing-coming\/\">American Interest: More Dismal Economic News from China: Is a Hard Landing Coming?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2013: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2013-01-08\/hard-landing-china-part-1-evolution-and-response\">Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2014. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2015\/12\/03\/you-should-fear-a-china-hard-landing.html\">CNBC: Scared of a China hard landing? You should be<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2015. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/kenrapoza\/2015\/09\/03\/congratulations-you-got-yourself-a-chinese-hard-landing\/\">Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing<\/a><\/li>\n<li>2016. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eiu.com\/industry\/article\/814708465\/hard-landing-looms-in-china\/2016-10-14\">The Economist Intelligence Unit: Hard landing looms for China<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2017. <a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/mountain-debt-chinas-economy-going-crash-19770\">National Interest: A Mountain of Debt: Is China&#8217;s Economy Going To Crash? Is China&#8217;s Economy Going To Crash?<\/a><\/li>\n<li>2019. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-02-01\/seven-reasons-why-china-facing-hard-landing-2019\">Zero Hedge: Seven Reasons Why China Is Facing A Hard Landing In 2019<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Unconfirmed<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"q-box\">\n<li>1990. The Economist. China&#8217;s economy has come to a halt<\/li>\n<li>1996. The Economist. China&#8217;s economy will face a hard landing\n<ul class=\"q-box\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/finance-and-economics\/2006\/06\/22\/exercising-its-pricing-power\">Might be from this 2006 piece in same outlet<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy<\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin\n<ul class=\"q-box\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/china-economy-currency\/china-currency-move-nails-hard-landing-risk-coffin-idINDEE83E01C20120415\">Appears to be from 2012 and Reuters?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2001. Wilbanks, Smith &amp; Thomas: A hard landing in China.<\/li>\n<li class=\"q-relative\">2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing<\/li>\n<li>2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is a list that&#8217;s floating around (meaning: copy pasted without sources), and it&#8217;s also got no exact sources, so it&#8217;s unclear how legit it is. So I did some searching to confirm, and this blogpost can then be the new reference post. I noted that some of the titles were wrong, sometimes they change [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1898],"tags":[2096,2903],"class_list":["post-9146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-china","tag-forecasting","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9146","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9146"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9146\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9147,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9146\/revisions\/9147"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9146"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9146"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emilkirkegaard.dk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9146"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}