Herding, polls of polls and Bayes’ theorem
You have probably heard of that outlier Iowa poll that gave a surprisingly large advantage to Harris in the 2024 election. Related to this is that is what forecasters call…
Bayesian interpretation of confidence intervals is fine
Most method people agree that most researchers are bad at statistics, naturally. A typical paper to show this is: Lyu, X. K., Xu, Y., Zhao, X. F., Zuo, X. N.,…