Goals and forecasts for 2021

Last year’s post (2020) and scoring the predictions. These are goals and projections for my various productivity measures. These are all based on ignoring the tail risk of getting banned (which is now substantial across platforms). The method of doing projections is not difficult: gather some prior data, eyeball the data, project with simple models,…

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Scoring my 2020 predictions

I wanted to wait until all the US election stuff resolves, but seems like this will take a while for the last few questions, so let’s proceed for now. As mentioned in the Goals for 2020 post, I decided to get into forecasting because I found a funnier website than GJOpen: Metaculus: I also want…

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