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Forecasting

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Read more about the article Who has how much dysgenics? The worldwide picture

Who has how much dysgenics? The worldwide picture

  • Post author:Emil O. W. Kirkegaard
  • Post published:7. September 2025
  • Post category:Demographics/Forecasting/intelligence / IQ / cognitive ability

In 2024, Seb Jensen published a report over at Hanania's CSPI (Are We Getting Dumber?) summarizing his findings concerning the speed of global dysgenics. Due to various reasons, the formal…

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Read more about the article Female education and fertility rates

Female education and fertility rates

  • Post author:Emil O. W. Kirkegaard
  • Post published:7. July 2025
  • Post category:Demographics/Education/Forecasting

This figure has been floating around on X the last few days: As in my own example, the copycat gained more attention than the earlier post (July 3rd 1.2M views,…

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Read more about the article So Le Pen didn’t wen

So Le Pen didn’t wen

  • Post author:Emil O. W. Kirkegaard
  • Post published:23. June 2022
  • Post category:Forecasting/Politics

Back in April, I posted the results of my predictive model about Marine Le Pen's winning chances. The model produced a much higher chance of victory than most other people…

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Read more about the article Book reviews: Apocalypse Never (Michael Shellenberger) and Unsettled (Steven E. Koonin)

Book reviews: Apocalypse Never (Michael Shellenberger) and Unsettled (Steven E. Koonin)

  • Post author:Emil O. W. Kirkegaard
  • Post published:6. June 2021
  • Post category:Book review/Computer science/Forecasting

So I've gone back to my old habit of binge reading on mostly unrelated topics to my main work in the genetics-social science cluster. Climate science is a long running…

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Read more about the article Goals and forecasts for 2021

Goals and forecasts for 2021

  • Post author:Emil O. W. Kirkegaard
  • Post published:11. January 2021
  • Post category:Forecasting/Personal

Last year's post (2020) and scoring the predictions. These are goals and projections for my various productivity measures. These are all based on ignoring the tail risk of getting banned…

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Read more about the article Scoring my 2020 predictions

Scoring my 2020 predictions

  • Post author:Emil O. W. Kirkegaard
  • Post published:7. January 2021
  • Post category:Forecasting/Personal

I wanted to wait until all the US election stuff resolves, but seems like this will take a while for the last few questions, so let's proceed for now. As…

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