Goals and forecasts for 2021

Last year’s post (2020) and scoring the predictions. These are goals and projections for my various productivity measures. These are all based on ignoring the tail risk of getting banned (which is now substantial across platforms). The method of doing projections is not difficult: gather some prior data, eyeball the data, project with simple models,…

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Scoring my 2020 predictions

I wanted to wait until all the US election stuff resolves, but seems like this will take a while for the last few questions, so let’s proceed for now. As mentioned in the Goals for 2020 post, I decided to get into forecasting because I found a funnier website than GJOpen: Metaculus: I also want…

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Myers Briggs: results of 46 Twitter raters

Slightly odd topic for a Christmas Even post, but some time ago, I talked with some people about the Myers Briggs personality model. As a contrarian, I am of course interested in pushing against the mainstream view of my social circle (if reasonable). In wide culture, Myers Briggs is very popular, but among psychologists, it…

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New paper out: National Intelligence Is More Important for Explaining Country Well-Being than Time Preference and Other Measured Non-Cognitive Traits

Kirkegaard, E. O. W., & Karlin, A. (2020). National Intelligence Is More Important for Explaining Country Well-Being than Time Preference and Other Measured Non-Cognitive Traits. Mankind Quarterly, 61(2). https://doi.org/10.46469/mq.2020.61.2.11 Patient people fare better in life than impatient people. Based on this and on economic models, many economists have claimed that more patient countries should fare…

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New paper out: What Happened to Brussels? The Big Decline and Muslim Immigration

Researchgate link (ungated) Kirkegaard, E. O. W., & Dumoulin, B. (2020). What Happened to Brussels? The Big Decline and Muslim Immigration. Mankind Quarterly, 61(2). https://doi.org/10.46469/mq.2020.61.2.8 We examined regional inequality in Belgium, both in the 19 communes of Brussels and in the country as a whole (n = 589 communes). We find very strong relationships between…

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What does money buy? Selected readings from lottery studies

In science, we are generally mostly interested in causal relationships because these are the ones that matter. Causality is generally defined in terms of counter-factuals: if things were such and such, or had been such and such, things would be such and such (instead). One can formalize this reasoning with the do-operator and related methods…

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China economy predictions: 1990-2020

There is a list that’s floating around (meaning: copy pasted without sources), and it’s also got no exact sources, so it’s unclear how legit it is. So I did some searching to confirm, and this blogpost can then be the new reference post. I noted that some of the titles were wrong, sometimes they change…

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The within-person design: a selective review

The within-person (or intra-individual or within‐individual or …), design is a longitudinal design where we follow people over time as they change on some purported cause, and look at whether the purported effect also varies accordingly. This simple design is surprisingly underused despite having the strong advantage that it controls by design for both genetic…

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