So Le Pen didn’t wen
Back in April, I posted the results of my predictive model about Marine Le Pen's winning chances. The model produced a much higher chance of victory than most other people…
Forecasts for the 2022 French election
Metaculus: Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election? So let's try! Let's time…
How bad is the Hungarian democracy? A quantitative approach
Hungarian president Viktor Orbán is not popular with western media and academics. This is obvious as he is a national conservative, and that's the least favorite group according to journalist…
Some simple models of US county voting outcomes
Woodley convinced me that these are of actual interest. As some of you may recall, I compiled a large county level (n≈3000) dataset some time ago, but didn't use it…