There is a list that’s floating around (meaning: copy pasted without sources), and it’s also got no exact sources, so it’s unclear how legit it is. So I did some searching to confirm, and this blogpost can then be the new reference post. I noted that some of the titles were wrong, sometimes they change titles retrospectively (“we were always at war with…”), but some of them seem to have been the original ones. I also added another prediction I found for 2019.
Confirmed sightings:
- 1998. The Economist: Red alert: China may be about to catch the Japanese disease. The consequences would be bad not only for China but for all of Asia; and also explosive politically
- 2003. New York Times: A bad loan bubble : Banking crisis imperils China
- 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
- 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
- 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
- 2007. TIME: Is China’s Economy Overheating?
- 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
- 2009. Fortune: China’s hard landing
- 2011: Business Insider: Why A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
- 2012: American Interest: More Dismal Economic News from China: Is a Hard Landing Coming?
- 2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
- 2014. CNBC: Scared of a China hard landing? You should be
- 2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing
- 2016. The Economist Intelligence Unit: Hard landing looms for China
- 2017. National Interest: A Mountain of Debt: Is China’s Economy Going To Crash? Is China’s Economy Going To Crash?
- 2019. Zero Hedge: Seven Reasons Why China Is Facing A Hard Landing In 2019
Unconfirmed
- 1990. The Economist. China’s economy has come to a halt
- 1996. The Economist. China’s economy will face a hard landing
- 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy
- 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin
- 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
- 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
- 2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China
