Forecast results for 2022 (Metaculus)
Like all the other cool kids, I set some personal goals every year, and also make some forecasts about these. So let's look at how my forecasts for 2022 went,…
Scoring my forecasts for 2021 — unofficial Metaculus superforecaster?
It is a test of true theories not only to account for but to predict phenomena. (William Whewell, 1840) No one has done more in recent years to spread…
Goals and forecasts for 2021
Last year's post (2020) and scoring the predictions. These are goals and projections for my various productivity measures. These are all based on ignoring the tail risk of getting banned…
China economy predictions: 1990-2020
There is a list that's floating around (meaning: copy pasted without sources), and it's also got no exact sources, so it's unclear how legit it is. So I did some…