China economy predictions: 1990-2020

There is a list that’s floating around (meaning: copy pasted without sources), and it’s also got no exact sources, so it’s unclear how legit it is. So I did some searching to confirm, and this blogpost can then be the new reference post. I noted that some of the titles were wrong, sometimes they change titles retrospectively (“we were always at war with…”), but some of them seem to have been the original ones. I also added another prediction I found for 2019.

Confirmed sightings:


  • 1990. The Economist. China’s economy has come to a halt
  • 1996. The Economist. China’s economy will face a hard landing
  • 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy
  • 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin
  • 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
  • 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
  • 2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China