Goals and forecasts for 2021
Last year's post (2020) and scoring the predictions. These are goals and projections for my various productivity measures. These are all based on ignoring the tail risk of getting banned…
Scoring my 2020 predictions
I wanted to wait until all the US election stuff resolves, but seems like this will take a while for the last few questions, so let's proceed for now. As…
Myers Briggs: results of 46 Twitter raters
Slightly odd topic for a Christmas Even post, but some time ago, I talked with some people about the Myers Briggs personality model. As a contrarian, I am of course…
New paper out: National Intelligence Is More Important for Explaining Country Well-Being than Time Preference and Other Measured Non-Cognitive Traits
Kirkegaard, E. O. W., & Karlin, A. (2020). National Intelligence Is More Important for Explaining Country Well-Being than Time Preference and Other Measured Non-Cognitive Traits. Mankind Quarterly, 61(2). https://doi.org/10.46469/mq.2020.61.2.11 Patient…
New paper out: What Happened to Brussels? The Big Decline and Muslim Immigration
Researchgate link (ungated) Kirkegaard, E. O. W., & Dumoulin, B. (2020). What Happened to Brussels? The Big Decline and Muslim Immigration. Mankind Quarterly, 61(2). https://doi.org/10.46469/mq.2020.61.2.8 We examined regional inequality in…
What does money buy? Selected readings from lottery studies
In science, we are generally mostly interested in causal relationships because these are the ones that matter. Causality is generally defined in terms of counter-factuals: if things were such and…
China economy predictions: 1990-2020
There is a list that's floating around (meaning: copy pasted without sources), and it's also got no exact sources, so it's unclear how legit it is. So I did some…
The within-person design: a selective review
The within-person (or intra-individual or within‐individual or ...), design is a longitudinal design where we follow people over time as they change on some purported cause, and look at whether…
What’s in your genome? Free services for personal polygenic scores (impute.me tour)
Polygenic scores are all the rage. Naturally, you want to know your own scores, and you have a reading of your genome from some company. Unfortunately, the company doesn't provide…
Genetic editing in animals for profit: how far have we come in 2020?
Animal breeding, human breeding (2015) Recent reviews in animal breeding (2019) Breeder genomics is way ahead of human genomics. Whenever something can be and is done in animals, it takes…
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